Final day drama ?? Make your own mind up...

Italian Calcio

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ratherton
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Final day drama ?? Make your own mind up...

Postby ratherton » 28 May 2007, 20:29

I was told earlier today that A C Milan could be backed at the incredible odds of 11/2 to win away at Reggina on the last day of the season in Serie A. Lazio odds were even greater at 7/1 to win away at Siena.

Both home sides had to win to stand any hope of avoiding relegation. The results:

Reginna 2 A C Milan 0
Siena 2 Lazio 1

The final table looks like this with Reginna and Siena just avoiding the drop.
http://home.skysports.com/leaguetable.aspx?cpid=21

Now call me suspicious but bookies normally now exactly what is going on and if they think that the new European Champions only have an 11/2 chance of winning away at a struggling club in the league, they know something the rest of us don't.
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Postby ajc » 28 May 2007, 21:22

Wow, this is very strange. I think it's possible there is some type of malfeasance going on. For me I think there is no way those odds could have been made without them knowing something we don't.
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Postby Foxmero » 28 May 2007, 21:41

how do they know what the odds are?
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Postby ratherton » 28 May 2007, 22:03

Foxmero wrote:how do they know what the odds are?


Who ?? The bookies ??

They carefully calculate the odds based on as much information as they possibly have.

If they are offering 11/2 on AC Milan winning at Reginna, that means they have Reginna down as hot favourites to win the game. All things being equal, most people would expect Milan to win that game so the odds would have been more like 4/5. The bookies were saying they did not expect Milan to go to Reginna and win which goes against all sensible thinking so what did they know that we didn't ??
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Postby gnarlyjim » 28 May 2007, 22:05

Definitely a little fishy. I wonder if they give an explanation as to how they come up with this stuff?

I definitely think there's something they know that we don't.
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Postby mpcarres14 » 28 May 2007, 22:12

Wait, didn't Reggina just get caught match-fixing last year? You'd think that they had learned from their mistakes...
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Postby Real_Zidane » 28 May 2007, 22:26

It wouldn't surprise me in the least bit if something was going on 'behind the scenes' in Serie A. With so many scandals it's turning into the worst league in Europe regarding disciplinary matters.
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Postby ROIUSA » 29 May 2007, 00:30

who gave you the odds ratherton? one of ur mates or seen it somewhere, cuz those odd are rediculous
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Postby Hugh » 29 May 2007, 03:11

I'm going to be honest here, I don't actually understand how the whole "odds" thing works, I mean I understand what the numbers mean (probability) and I know how they get them, but what I don't know is why milan has an 11/2 chance to win, is that a two in eleven chance to win? ie. 1 in 5.5, because to me that looks like an 11 in 2 chance to win.... Is it just backwards?


Regardless if what you say is true, I'm not surprised, on a scale of 0 to corrupt Italy is a yes.

I went down there a few years ago, and as we were driving along we were passed by a convoy of 5 cars, 2 black SUVs, one Limo and 2 Police cars; so I asked my friend's cousin who lives there:
"Oh who's that? A movie star or what?"
And he looks at me and says "A movie star? No, that's a Judge!"

How bad can the state of things be if a Judge needs an escort of police (and I'm guessing special service or something) just while travelling from place to place!?

And the Ultras (die hard fans) are even worse, don't even get me started. Suffice it to say Italy should be kicked out of all international competitions untill they can sort themselves out. Honestly, African nations with Genocides, rampant AIDS and worse infrastructure than kindergarten have football associations with less trouble than Italy.

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Postby ajc » 29 May 2007, 03:16

Hugh wrote:I'm going to be honest here, I don't actually understand how the whole "odds" thing works, I mean I understand what the numbers mean (probability) and I know how they get them, but what I don't know is why milan has an 11/2 chance to win, is that a two in eleven chance to win? ie. 1 in 5.5, because to me that looks like an 11 in 2 chance to win.... Is it just backwards?

Really it doesn't directly indicate predicted chances to win, it tells how much money you will make on a bet. In this case for every $2 you bet on Milan to win you would get back $11 (if they had won).
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Postby ratherton » 29 May 2007, 05:41

ROIUSA wrote:who gave you the odds ratherton? one of ur mates or seen it somewhere, cuz those odd are rediculous


Yeah.

I didn't see them and I'm not sure if all bookies were offering those odds or even which country you could get those in. I assume it was local bookies, not UK bookies.
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