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Using Stats for Player Analysis
| Posted: 13 Jul 2007, 00:34 | |
Senior Member Joined: 26 Mar 2007, 22:37 Posts: 127 |
Hi guys
I am in the process of creating formulas to monitor player effectiveness in each position. I have a striker and a Winger formula but I need some help. Does anyone know where I can find: Tackles made Passes Pass Completion % Or any other good stats. Im currently using ActimStats. My findings so far. Players get a score. Higher is better. Premiership 2006/2007 Wingers (using Goals, Assists, Crosses, Shots, Penalties Scored and Missed, Offsides, Fouls, Yellow and Red Cards). It is then averaged into per 90 minutes. Cristiano Ronaldo 1.116 Ryan Giggs 0.866 Arjen Robben 0.787 James Milner 0.765 Stuart Downing 0.734 Jermaine Pennant 0.679 Morten Gamst Pederson 0.667 Aaron Lennon 0.585 Some interesting Results eg. Lennon last so far. What do you guys think. |
| Posted: 13 Jul 2007, 01:56 | |
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Senior Member Joined: 26 Mar 2007, 22:37 Posts: 127 |
Goalkeepers: (using clean sheets, saves, average goal conceded, goals, assists and discipline)
Petr Cech 0.867 Jose Manuel Reina 0.771 Tim Howard 0.675 Thomas Sorensen 0.620 Carlo Cudicini 0.574 David James 0.571 Marcus Hahnemann 0.570 Edwin Van der Sar 0.566 Jussi Jaaskelainen 0.481 Jens Lehmann 0.458 Mark Schwarzer 0.439 Paul Robinson 0.356 Scott Carson 0.256 Shay Given 0.140 Henrique Hilario -0.256 What do you think? |
| Posted: 13 Jul 2007, 02:35 | |
Junior Member Joined: 22 Apr 2007, 23:37 Posts: 68 |
It's a decent enough idea. I recommend using Excel, or some other similar program with spreadsheet capability, to keep track of the stats and to make calculating scores easier. I'm curious, what's your formula?
One more point about formulas and scoring. I think each player should get a mark out of 100 (scored on a Bell curve) for each individual statistic, and their overall score should be an average of all of their marks. |
| Posted: 13 Jul 2007, 04:43 | |
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Senior Member Joined: 26 Mar 2007, 22:37 Posts: 127 |
Sounds like a good idea
I do a formula for each position. positive contributions give the player points eg. Strikers get 1.5 points per non-penalty goal. Points get taken away for fouls, cards etc. Each contribution is weighted per position and importance. eg. goals > fouls etc. Afterwards the players total is divided by the number of minutes he has played and the multiplied by 90 to get a contribution per full game. The only major flaws I have found are comparing between positions and with keepers their average goals conceded per game is tallied. Saves are also noted but keepers who play less time might concede a high average but don't have time to make saves. This is what harmed Shay Given. I am considering changing it so total goals conceded replaces average per game, If that makes sense. Here are my current formulas: Strikers 90{(Non –Penalty Goals x 1.5) + (Assists) + (Penalties Scored x 0.2) - (Penalties Missed x 0.8) + Shots/100 - (Offsides x 0.05) - (Fouls x 0.05) – (Yellow Cards x 0.1) – (Red Cards x 0.5)} ______________ Minutes Played Wingers 90{Non-Penalty Goals + Assists + (Crosses/10) + Shots/100 + (Penalties Scored x 0.2) - (Penalties Missed x 0.8) - (Offsides x 0.05) - (Fouls x 0.05) – (Yellow Cards x 0.1) – (Red Cards x 0.5)} ______________ Minutes Played Goalkeepers 90{(Clean Sheets) + (Saves/10) + Non-Penalty Goals + Assists + (Penalties Scored x 0.2) - (Penalties Missed x 0.8) – (Average Goals Against x 10) - (Fouls x 0.1) – (Yellow Cards x 0.1) – (Red Cards x 0.5)} _______________ Minutes Played I need to know passes and tackles etc. to do CMs and Fullbacks etc.   RIP Vincenzo Paparelli. Killed by an AS Roma flare in 1979. RIP Gabriele Sandri. Killed by a Police Officer in 2007. FORZA LAZIO |
| Posted: 13 Jul 2007, 04:47 | |
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Senior Member Joined: 26 Mar 2007, 22:37 Posts: 127 |
Sorry about the double post.
Another problem is that you cannot measure mental attributes and leadership attributes, or physical eg. speed So don't use it entirely to decide who is better than who. Use it as a guide. RIP Vincenzo Paparelli. Killed by an AS Roma flare in 1979. RIP Gabriele Sandri. Killed by a Police Officer in 2007. FORZA LAZIO |
| Posted: 13 Jul 2007, 19:21 | |
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Junior Member Joined: 22 Apr 2007, 23:37 Posts: 68 |
It just seems like a very arbitrary formula (though any of this kind would be to some degree) because you're taking it upon yourself to assign weights to different areas of the game while you're also deciding which areas of the game bear any importance at all. Also, with this system you can't compare the contribution of players in different positions. Here's a bit more about my suggestion - a rough outline basically, I'll use a fictional example (all these stats will be completely made up).
Let's say that the effectiveness of an attacker is based on only two things (limiting at two only for the purpose of this outline, in reality it should definitely be more). These two things are: goals per game, and shots on target/total shots. The 3 top players in each statistic, let's assume they're the same 3 for both to keep things simple: Goals per game: 1. D. Kuyt 0.5 (100) 2. A. Shevchenko 0.4 (80) 3. W. Rooney 0.1 (20) Shots on target/total shots: 1. A. Shevchenko 0.8 (100) 2. D. Kuyt 0.4 (50) 3. W. Rooney 0.3 (37.5) Using those stats, I've added the scores they would receive in brackets. The formula to get the scores for any statistic is: player stat/best stat * 100%. Therefore the best strikers in the EPL are: 1. A. Shevchenko (90) 2. D. Kuyt (75) 3. W. Rooney (28.75) So by using this system you can compare how well Shevchenko did in his position and in his league to how well someone like Dida did in his position and league. What do you think, better or worse than your idea? |
| Posted: 13 Jul 2007, 23:24 | |
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Senior Member Joined: 26 Mar 2007, 22:37 Posts: 127 |
They both have strengths and weaknesses, although I think your idea could go places  . The only problem I see is that if you add one person to It you may have to redo everything but that is not too bad. I still think we should weigh the significance. So eg. For a striker, using your method, goals are out of 100 and discipline out of, lets say 20.
We could even try doing both tests to get an average of best player.
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| Posted: 13 Jul 2007, 23:41 | |
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Senior Member Joined: 26 Mar 2007, 22:37 Posts: 127 |
Sorry about the Double Post
I guess there will always be debate in terms of how important something is so I guess we should find a happy medium. I am a bit biased towards short passing and possession but I'll try and be impartial. I definitely think that we need to weigh thing whichever way we do it because some things are obviously more important than others. |